April 2025 Vector Report 2
APRIL 2025
HIGHLIGHTS
- Israeli drone startups are focused on developing autonomous, AI-powered, and survivable
drone technologies. - Israeli forces are fielding new drone platforms to conduct deep-penetration surveillance
missions. - Ukraine and Russia are both using radio repeaters to extend the range and reliability of
radio communications. - A Ukrainian firm has developed a cheap, single-use repeater that provides improved radio
communication and is popular with SOF units. - The Ukrainians are using an Israeli radar to help down Russian drones.
- The Russians are using a man-portable guided munition that has features of both FPVs and
ATGMs. - Yet another Chinese military exercise near Taiwan underscores the growing risk of war.
- The Chinese military has developed a new, mini combat drone.
- A plan to train reservists in combat drone operations has hit a snag — a lack of instructors.
EDITOR'S NOTE
Apart from the toll we suffered in September 2001 and the thinning ranks of Pearl Harbor survivors among us, America’s living experience at war is largely limited to expeditionary conflicts fought on foreign soil. Of course, during the Cold War we reckoned with the threat of nuclear apocalypse.
People from my parents’ generation recall “duck and cover” drills from their childhoods, and I
remember my grandfather’s story of going to a Sears department store in Sarasota, Florida to buy
guns and ammunition during the Cuban missile crisis. Apart from these outlying examples, the idea of the U.S. homeland as a warfighting domain goes against the grain of America’s modern,
national consciousness. Yet, our holiday from history is over.
Adversarial forces are on the march around the world, and we’d be fools to think that two oceans and a border wall are enough to protect us. Apart from a full-blown nuclear exchange, the most pressing threat is a conventional war with China over Taiwan. During such a war — or one against any nation-state adversary — we should expect a retaliatory campaign against the American homeland carried out by a fifth column of saboteurs pre-placed within our borders. We should also anticipate that small, tactical drones will be their kinetic weapon of choice. Many armchair military planners argue that a war over Taiwan would largely be fought with missiles and warships and stealth warplanes. All this high-tech hardware will certainly be central to the main theater of combat. Yet, on the ground in Taiwan or wherever else a war with China might take us, the nature of combat will be radically transformed by all the advances in unmanned combat doctrine and technology that have occurred on Ukraine’s battlefields. That rise of drone warfare also poses a novel challenge to the defense of the American homeland.
Due to our democratic culture, the endurance of America’s wars is sustained by popular, civilian
support. Thus, should a conflict erupt, China will aim to inflict some measure of suffering on the
American civilian population aimed at undercutting our national will to fight. To that end, China
(or any adversary) doesn’t need to use ICBMs or hypersonic missiles or even massive cyberattacks.
Instead, covert teams operating within the U.S. homeland could employ small, tactical drones to
carry out a coordinated, nationwide attack that sows fear and panic and paralyzes our economy.
As these pages have previously argued, the drone incursions at London’s Gatwick Airport in
December 2018 are a wake-up call. By simply flying unarmed drones within the airport’s vicinity,
the unidentified perpetrators were able to ground traffic and strand more than 100,000 travelers for three days. Now imagine if that scenario played out at every major U.S. airport. Now go further
and imagine if such a campaign was complemented by an online misinformation campaign. The
social media frenzy over the East Coast drone sightings earlier this year clearly highlighted how
vulnerable our society is to such mass misinformation.
Our enemies know how prone our society is to bouts of social-media-turbocharged panic. Our
nation’s constitutional commitment to free speech limits our options for policing social media
against the weaponized spread of disinformation. That said, we can do something about the drone threat. The technology and the talent exist to protect America from these novel threats, but time may be running out to shore up our nationwide counter-drone defenses before the next war comes.
Drones are almost tailor-made to irregular warfare operations. For one, they are readily accessible
and easily assembled. In Ukraine, for example, the People’s Drone Project maintains an online course in how to construct FPV drones, including detailed lists of components and tools and step-
by-step video tutorials. It’s not fantastic to imagine Chinese covert action cells doing something similar within the U.S., perhaps turning a network of basements and houses into miniature FPV
drone factories.
Of course, such predictions venture into the realm of speculative fiction, and one risks generating a few eye rolls if you lean too hard into pet theories about the next war. But the crux of this line of
thinking is not speculative, for we already see daily examples on the Ukrainian battlefield of how
small, tactical drones are having tactical, operational, and strategic effects. And we’d better assume that our future adversaries are taking notes.
When it comes to defending the U.S. homeland, advanced missile defense systems and space-based tracking systems aren’t enough. We need to consider the risk of aerial attacks launched from within the U.S., operating at extremely low altitudes. We’ve seen time and again how Ukraine’s fleet of homegrown, relatively low-tech kamikaze drones have slipped through the cracks of Russia’s air defenses. Our adversaries are likely wondering how America’s air defenses would fare against such low-altitude attacks.
We can look to Ukraine for some examples of how to defend against these novel threats. For
example, to track and down Russia’s Shahed kamikaze drones, Ukraine has adopted a number of
low-cost defensive measures such as mobile firing teams and a national network of acoustic
sensors. To track inbound threats, enterprising Ukrainian civilians have also established national
observation networks and Telegram news feeds that provide updates in real time.
One of the most notable developments in drone technology thus far this year is the growing use of
FPV drones as aerial interceptors. Notably, on April 20 a Ukrainian FPV drone from the Birds of
Magyar unit reportedly downed a Russian Forpost-R medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE)
drone operating at an altitude of 13,000 feet. Closer to earth, Ukrainians are constantly adapting
new defenses against Russia’s tactical drones — a bellwether for the defensive challenges America will face, both on expeditionary battlefiels as well as in defending the homeland.
Hardening our national drone defenses must be a national priority. And a key part of this effort will
comprise specialist teams, such as Vector’s training cadre, red-teaming all the entrepreneurial ways our adversaries might attack our blind spots. Technological prowess is not enough; we must also acquire the experience and foster the operational talent to anticipate and defeat our adversaries’ next moves — wherever they may strike.
