AUGUST 2024

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HIGHLIGHTS

• On Aug. 25, Hezbollah launched over 320 rockets and drones into northern Israel,
  targeting both military and civilian sites in a gambit to overwhelm air defense systems
  ahead of a larger operation. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responded with
  preemptive airstrikes across southern Lebanon.
• The widespread use of FPV drones has introduced a new dynamic to Israel’s
  conflict against Hamas and Hezbollah, challenging conventional military strategies.
• Enterprising junior Ukrainian officers and soldiers have revamped the task
  organization of their drone units to increase combat effectiveness and to cut down on
  the time lag between identifying a target and destroying it.
• Russian developers are coming up with low-cost, simple-tech solutions to evade
  Ukraine’s EW defenses.
• Ukraine’s Kursk offensive showcased Ukraine’s offensive drone capabilities but
  has so far not improved the Ukrainians’ situation on other, embattled sections of the
  eastern front lines.
• The Ukrainians have developed protocols to pair unmanned weapons systems to
  appropriate targets.
• While problems persist, Ukrainian forces are improving the functionality of their
  unmanned systems’ kill chains.

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EDITOR'S NOTE

When it comes to the future of warfare, there’s a lot to learn from the war in Ukraine.
In particular, this war has shifted away from expensive, standalone platforms in favor of the dispersed, mass-scale use of cheap and expendable systems — such as drones. Since February 2022, the use of unmanned systems on Ukraine’s battlefields has exponentially expanded on both sides, replacing many roles previously held by manned aircraft and other platforms. And while big-ticket items such as F-16 fighter jets are certainly important, many of Ukraine's most pressing needs are more mundane. Warfighting staples like artillery shells and air defenses — but also things like trucks.

One Ukrainian drone operator lamented: “I have a $1 million drone, but I don't have
a $10,000 truck to get it to the front line.” No war is a perfect crystal ball for the next. And we still don’t know what might tip the balance between Ukraine and Russia. For our part at the Vector Report, we doubt there is any magical weapon that will win the war. Yet, the rise of drone warfare does
symbolize another important lesson from this conflict — it’s about creativity, adaptability, and culture.

Since 2014, Ukraine’s military embraced the Western model of mission command, which pushes tactical decision making down to front-line personnel. Those changes paid huge dividends during the full-scale war, affording Ukraine’s combat leaders more leeway to make their own decisions based on battlefield realities, rather than taking play-by-play orders from some faraway commander.

One Ukrainian special operations soldier explained: “We are trying to get rid of the Soviet mindset. Our commanders are young, with Western mindsets, and they’re trying to change things. But there isn’t enough time to change the whole system in the middle of a war.”

Drone warfare has been present on the Donbas front lines since the war’s inception in 2014. What began as patchwork of grassroots, volunteer initiatives has since evolved into burgeoning military-industrial enterprises in both Russia and Ukraine.

The war is a race to out innovate the other side, and both Russia and Ukraine are developing unmanned systems, as well as counter-drone defenses, in quick and iterative succession. A race between “sword and shield,” as some commentators have described it. And while some analysts continue to question whether drones are genuine game-changers, it certainly looks as if Ukraine and Russia see unmanned warfare as an elemental component of their future force structures.

One Ukrainian soldier told the Vector Report, “Every soldier must know how to shoot a gun, drive a car, and fly a drone.” To that end, both the Ukrainian and Russian school systems have introduced drone engineering courses for high schoolers and younger grades. Recognizing the need to tap into its population’s creative potential, Ukraine’s government has also streamlined the procurement process for companies and start-ups building drones and other new technologies for combat. One of Ukraine’s top commanders said this week in an interview that Ukraine’s armed forces are currently using more than 170 different types of unmanned systems in combat. The number of drones received by Ukrainian forces this year has increased sixfold over 2023 — a production rate that now outpaces Russia’s, Ukrainian officials say. With the financial backing of its foreign partners, Ukraine now has the capacity to produce some three million drones a year.

According to Ukrainian officials, more than 160 manufacturers of unmanned ground vehicles are also at work in Ukraine. “These are robots for reconnaissance, defeating the enemy, logistics, evacuating the wounded, and demining,” Mykhailo Fedorov, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine for Innovation, Development of Education, Science and Technology, said in a recent interview. "We work to minimize human involvement wherever possible,” Fedorov said. “We already have robots that are capable of independently picking up a wounded person and evacuating him without human intervention.”
Brave 1, Ukraine’s drone technology development cluster, provides a single entry point for Ukrainian drone developers looking to break into the market. To that end, Brave 1 offers grants and assistance to start-ups trying to navigate the government procurement process. The top four development priorities for Brave 1 currently comprise: UAVs, ground-based robotic complexes, EW tools, and artificial
intelligence. “[T]he situation on the battlefield is changing rapidly,” Fedorov, Ukraine’s deputy
prime minister in charge of drone developments, said in a recent interview.

He added: “The enemy is constantly learning, investing money and resources in developing new solutions. Therefore, our task is to constantly generate innovations, to be open, to look for quick solutions and to be several steps ahead. Flexibility and speed are what will make it possible to defeat such a closed system as in Russia.” According to Fedorov, countries and companies from around the world are flocking to Ukraine to hone future warfighting technologies. “More than 100 investment
partners from more than 30 countries are showing interest in Ukrainian developments,” he said.

Ukraine’s drone warfare innovations, while meteoric, aren’t limited to new technologies. The Ukrainians are concurrently developing and adapting their drone warfare doctrine to match the technological tools their innovators are developing. This week’s Vector Report provides a look at one key aspect of Ukraine’s evolving drone doctrine, highlighting how front-line forces are streamlining their units to better coordinate their operations and to maximize battlefield effects.

The recent Kursk offensive failed to significantly divert Russian forces from ongoing hot spots in eastern Ukraine, as many in Kyiv had hoped. Even so, the bold Ukrainian attack has showcased how far the Ukrainians have come in terms of orchestrating offensive drone operations. The reactions by frustrated Russians on social media channels offer an insight into the efficacy of Ukraine’s drone warfare approach.

One recent post on a Russian military Telegram feed describes how Ukrainian drones are now reportedly trailing Russian drones back to their points of origin — a ploy intended to reveal the Russians’ locations for follow-on precision strikes. “I would like to draw attention to another trick of the enemy,” a Russian Telegram channel commentator wrote, describing how Ukrainian drones sometimes trail Russian reconnaissance drones “to the landing site, detect the point and strike our
vehicles with [HIMARS].”

The Ukrainian drones may also be shadowing Russian drones to effectively act as remoras to slip into Russian-controlled airspace undetected. According to a Russian Telegram commentator: “[T]he enemy may be testing a new tactic in places...when several other UAVs hang on the tail of our UAV and fly after it at plus or minus the same azimuth and altitude, respectively, at about the same speed.”

These are unverified anecdotes, but they underscore the creative ways in which Ukrainians are employing drones in combat. The U.S., along with our allies and partners, should take note. As we transform our forces to face future threats, we must ensure that our doctrines keep pace with the new technologies we wield. And in the rush to glean technological lessons about drone combat from Ukraine, we shouldn’t overlook the war’s biggest lesson — that the human element of warfare is more
important than any technological tool.