February 2025 Vector Report 2

FEBRUARY 2025

HIGHLIGHTS

• Israeli have faced and overcome a broad gamut of battlefield challenges — in so doing,
  they’ve developed new and innovative unmanned warfare technologies and tactics.
• A number of recent, Israeli operations underscore important trends in drone warfare.
• The task organization of a Ukrainian UAV company offers insights into effective drone
  warfare doctrine.
• A cheap, multi-purpose Russian UAV has been dubbed the “AK-47 of drones.”.
• The Russians have created a mobile drone launch platform that could fill a variety of roles.
• Due to Chinese technological advances and geopolitical aggressiveness, Taiwan has
  prioritized the development of electronic warfare systems.
• A Taiwanese firm is ready to unveil a new hybrid vertical take-off and landing (HVTOL)
  drone.
• With a focus on mobility, Taiwan has developed a satellite communications vehicle, as
  well as specialized reconnaissance and jammer vehicles.

EDITOR'S NOTE

Anti-tank missiles symbolized Ukraine’s ragtag resistance in the war’s early days. The “Saint
Javelin” meme (now a clothing line) became one ubiquitous example of this. Ukrainian troops also
trained on other man-portable anti-tank weapons like NLAWs, Stugnas, and AT-4s. Yet, after
Russia’s retreat from Kyiv, the war crystallized along a front line in the east and south that, with a
few exceptions, has not moved all that much over the past few years. Raw artillery power was the
war’s deterministic metric for most of 2022. But these days that’s no longer the case.
According to a recent finding by the UK defense think tank RUSI, Ukrainian tactical drones now
inflict some two thirds of Russian losses. By that measure, Ukraine’s tactical drone arsenal is twice
as lethal as all of Ukraine’s other weapons combined. That’s a staggering ratio, especially when
one remembers that in February 2022 drones were mainly used as an ISR tool to assist in spotting
artillery.

Just as significantly, Ukraine’s drone manufacturing base has meteorically expanded to match the
concurrent rise of drone lethality. According to government statements, Ukraine’s military is set to
receive some 200,000 drones a month in 2025, mostly from domestic manufacturers. Across the
board, from all types of UAVs to unmanned ground vehicles and maritime drones — Ukraine is
leading the way in the unmanned warfare revolution. With all that in mind, it’s clear that, thanks to the force multiplying utility of drone warfare, Ukraine is much more self-sufficient in terms of
sustaining its war effort than it was three years ago.

The Ukrainians’ guiding maxim is to get effective, modular tools in warfighters’ hands as rapidly
and prolifically as possible — and to then upgrade and modify that hardware at the proverbial
speed of war. They do not delay deliveries for the sake of perfect products. They meet today’s
needs and maintain open feedback loops with warfighters to constantly remold their technologies.
Further underscoring the battlefield’s evolutive nature are recent reports that suggest Russia’s glide bombs — which have inflicted considerable damage against Ukrainian forces — are now
practically ineffective due to Ukraine’s stepped-up GPS jamming capabilities.
In tandem with that, Ukraine is developing technology to allow its drones to navigate without GPS. And as these pages have extensively covered during the past several months, fiber-optic tethered
drones have transformed the battlespace, affording both sides virtual immunity from the other’s
electronic warfare defenses.

So, we return to that original thought experiment and imagine what America would deliver to
Ukraine in 2025 to resist another Russian assault on Kyiv. Rather than Javelins, we’d get a better
return on our investment these days by delivering quadcopter bomber drones, loitering munitions,
and tethered FPV strike drones, as well as tethered UGVs for delivering supplies to front-line
troops.

It’s remarkable, really, to consider the breadth of the shift in warfighting technology and tactics
that has occurred since 2022. And considering the sharp uptick in Chinese naval drills we’ve seen
in recent days, there’s a non-zero chance the U.S. may need to expeditiously shore up another
ally’s defensive capabilities sometime soon.

The past three years in Ukraine prove that there is no single, straightforward framework to
resistance. And the recipe to support and sustain an ally’s national defense looks quite a bit
different today than it did three years ago.

That said, there’s one thing that hasn’t changed and never will. No matter what weapons the next
war is fought with, the most powerful way to support any allied nation in its darkest hour is to
prove they’re not alone.

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