July 2024

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Highlights

• Atmospherics:
  • ‍According to polling done throughout the full-scale war, roughly 90% of the
    Ukrainian population has been consistently unwilling to accept any territorial
    compromises with Russia for the sake of war termination. For more than two years,
    that share barely budged, despite two tough winters with limited heating and
    electricity, despite Russia’s repeated missile strikes against civilian areas, and despite
    the failed 2023 counteroffensive and other battlefield setbacks such as the loss of
    Bakhmut. Despite all these hardships and disappointments, the needle of Ukrainian
    national morale hardly wavered, underscoring steadfast national conviction in
    terminating the war by military victory.
• Emerging Tech:
  • Through OSINT sources I’ve seen several reports over the past week about Russian
    and Ukrainian firms building FPV drones with expanded payloads (9.5 to 15 kg) and
    longer ranges (25km to 30 km).
  • At a parade last week in Minsk, Belarus unveiled its analogue of Iran’s Shahed
    Kamikaze drone, the Kochyovnuk, or Nomad.
• Battlefield Trends:
  • Just like how fighter pilot culture was born in World War I, we’re now seeing the
    emergence of a unique warrior culture among Ukraine’s FPV pilots.
  • A defining characteristic of successful FPV pilots is target prioritization.
  • Shaheds are flying higher, up to 1 to 1.5 km, whereas earlier they were typically flying
    much lower, around 200 to 300 m.