March 2025 Vector Report 2
MARCH 2024
HIGHLIGHTS
- With the ceasefire over, UAV operations have intensified across the Israel-Gaza and Israel-
Lebanon battlefields. - With the escalation of hostilities, persistent surveillance has become a top priority for Israel.
- A number of recent operations highlight the increasing importance of UAVs in Israel’s
military operations. - We provide a breakdown on the characteristics and capabilities of Russian and Ukrainian
FPVs and the munitions they carry. - The Russians have employed a new tactic with their Iranian-designed kamikaze drones to
evade Ukrainian air defenses. - The Russians have built a domestic replacement to the Chinese Mavic 3.
- Taiwan recently conducted a large-scale exercise to test its ability to repel a Chinese
invasion. - Taiwan has developed some new drone technologies and tactics that will raise the cost of a
Chinese invasion.
EDITOR'S NOTE
During the 11 years I lived and reported in Ukraine, as well as while on other assignments such as
an embed with the Kurds during the 2016 Battle of Mosul, I’ve seen firsthand how small, tactical
drones have emerged as a key part, and a potentially deterministic factor, in modern warfare. In
particular, the prolific use of battlefield drones in Ukraine, by both sides, has foreshadowed the
roles of drones in future conflicts.
And while Ukraine is the epicenter of this drone warfare revolution, it is far from the only
battlespace where drones are having an impact. Across the world, drones are now a bridge between conventional and unconventional combat, having democratized long-range, precision strike capabilities that were once exclusive to conventional state militaries.
In the hands of conventional and unconventional operators, drones can have tactical, operational,
and strategic effects — from precision strikes on the battlefield, to disabling power stations and oil
refineries, shutting down airports, or destroying nuclear-capable bombers sitting on the tarmac at
an air base. Even if they are armed with relatively weak munitions, small drones now offer
America’s adversaries a low-cost, plausibly deniable way to spread panic and paralyze our
economy.
It’s not hard to imagine Chinese agents infiltrating U.S. territory across the southern border, buying
some small commercial drones, and then arming them with homemade explosives. These
operatives would be ready at a moment’s notice to launch a nationwide wave of attacks. And just
imagine the propaganda impact of a cheap, armed drone destroying a multi-million-dollar, F-47
fighter jet parked on the ramp at some Air Force base.
Since February 2022, the use of unmanned systems on Ukraine’s battlefields has exponentially
expanded on both sides, replacing many roles previously held by manned aircraft and other
weapons. Thus, the war in Ukraine marks a shift away from expensive, standalone platforms in
favor of the dispersed, mass-scale use of cheap and expendable systems. And as drones have
proliferated on the battlefield, so have counter-drone defenses. The Ukrainians describe it as a duel between “sword and shield,” and the pace of evolution is meteoric. The shelf-life of new tactics and technologies is often measured in weeks.
Drones began as an ad hoc substitute for limited reserves of artillery and airpower, but they’ve now proven their intrinsic value and have become one of the most deterministic factors in the war. As of this report’s publication, tactical Ukrainian drones now cause about 75% of Russian casualties. That means that Ukrainian tactical drones cause three times as many Russian casualties as all of Ukraine’s other weapons combined. To stay in the fight, both sides are now racing to mass-produce drones and train operators. And what began as a patchwork of grassroots initiatives has since turned into burgeoning military- industrial enterprises in both Russia and Ukraine. While some analysts continue to question whether drones are genuine game-changers, it certainly looks as if Ukraine and Russia see unmanned warfare as an elemental component of their future force structures. The surge in Ukraine’s drone production numbers clearly illustrates this point.
In 2022, the Ukrainian military reportedly procured some 500 drones through official government
contracts. In 2024, the Ukrainian military officially purchased 1.5 million FPV drones alone. Of
that number, 96% were made in Ukraine. In 2025, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense plans to purchase 4.5 million FPV drones — three times the number as in 2024. Ukraine’s MOD has reportedly allocated some $2.6 billion to the effort. On top of that, Ukraine also aims to produce at least 30,000 long-range drones in 2025.
Ukraine is now a drone arsenal, vastly outmatching America’s drone manufacturing potential. Moreover, Ukrainian drone producers have also made leaps in mass producing their own components, thereby divorcing themselves from Chinese supply chains. Should the U.S. find itself in a war with China in the Indo-Pacific, any ground operations will undoubtedly include FPV drone combat. As things currently stand, the U.S. does not have the drone manufacturing base, nor do we have the China-free component supply chains to sustain adrone war for more than a few weeks. And unless we make urgent moves to shore up our tactical UAV production potential and divorce our supply chains from China, we will find ourselves without the cards to sustain a drone war. In that scenario, our only recourse will be to ask for Ukraine’s assistance.
To be clear, tactical drones haven’t replaced anything. A modern war will depend on more than
FPV drones — stealth warplanes and missiles and aircraft carriers still matter. But when one
imagines what ground combat against China will look like, a good analogy is a scene from the
movie 300, when the Spartans come under a hailstorm of Persian arrows that blots out the sun.
That’s what the receiving end of a Chinese FPV drone war will feel like, and any army that suffers
such an attack may not fare better than the Spartans did at Thermopylae. And we shouldn’t forget how effective drones are as psychological weapons. Drones can track you and wait for you to emerge from a hiding place. They can fly inside bunkers and buildings and car windows. A recent video posted to social media shows a Ukrainian drone flying inside a building where Russian soldiers are sleeping. The video feed goes blurry at the moment of detonation —presumably the last moment of those soldiers’ lives.
The most terrifying aspect of drone attacks is the feeling that you’re always being watched and that an attack could come at any time, without warning. It’s like having a sniper zeroed in on your
position, trying to kill you at all times. Rather than the objective risk of artillery, drone warfare
feels personal. It feels like you’re being hunted.
American troops are resilient and tough. And we’ll no doubt find the requisite grit to fight and win
a drone war. But we need to make sure we’re accurately simulating the new realities of ground
combat in our training to reflect what the Ukrainians are currently enduring. We shouldn’t assume
that our F-47s and our Ford-class carriers have pre-destined us to win the next war without a heavy toll in blood and treasure. All this may sound hyperbolic. But again, I refer you to the Ukrainian battlefield where small drones are responsible for three out of every four dead or wounded Russians. Drones haven’t changed warfare at the margins — they’ve fundamentally recalibrated all aspects of ground combat. Currently, the so-called “air littoral” in Ukraine extends about 50 km from the line of contact. And due to the saturated drone threat, the density of troops has decreased and mounted movement is limited, forcing soldiers to move in smaller groups and often at night. Every aspect of military operations has adapted, from armored movements to squad formations. Plus, the advanced, AI-enabled sensors that drones now carry are changing the basic tenets of camouflage and concealment.
In a previous edition of the Vector Report, our team member in Ukraine explained how the
Ukrainians had created special new positions within their units for soldiers whose sole task it is to
escort their comrades across the drone-infested divide between rear echelon positions and the
contact line.
The Ukrainian battlefield stands in stark contrast to America’s most recent combat experiences
against terrorists and insurgents. Just imagine the carnage we would have suffered in Iraq and
Afghanistan if our enemies had access to FPV drones. Those of us who served are lucky that our
wars predated the drone warfare revolution by a few years. But our country’s good fortune has
expired, and we will face this threat in the next war. As I type these words, the enemy soldiers
Americans will face on a future battlefield are studying the war in Ukraine and learning its lessons.
So we’d better, too.
